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IRENOPALOGY DAY : THE DISWORLDER HOURS
DISWORLDER VS PEACE WORLDER —> MIDDLEWORLDER (From the Hot War to the Warm War, through Cold War)
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What is a Worlder ? An Order of the World.
What is the New Worlder ? Simply the New Order of the World.
What we live in this gaming 2020 year is the transition to the NEW WORLDER.
Not the New world Order seen by complotists, where aliens, reptilians and Instagram fitness models are changing the world for their profits.
No, here, we talk about the New Worlder where super-powers doesn’t communicate anymore. Here the fact : In this year of pandemia and lockdown, everybody is in his house.
But the business continues, as well as the international affairs, which are just the business of the governements. Nowadays, Every business is lead in each in his own way.
02 : 00
In the past, when distance where severly felt between locations, messengers where crucial between political territoires, as between traders.
During the Enlightment century, diplomacy was an art de vivre that established the leadership of the french langage as theforeign affairs vernacular lingua franca.
The French Revolution of 1789 not Only cut the head of the King of France Louis XVI but Also the Ties developped by the Royal House of Bourbon and its contemporaries.
One decade after, the rule on France by the Bonapartist power tried to reconnected France with the world, by the Peace of Amiens, but it appears as a trick that fooled the United Kingdom, as Napoleon turned after as the invador or Iberia, German kingdoms, Italy, nearly the Great Britain and Russia.
As we see, only trust and compromise can solve problems between states and powers, if not, only the force of reason or the reason of force can end the troubles.
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During the Cold War, the Redphone connected the world main powers of this time, the Union of Socialist Soviet Republics and the United States of America.
Behind the Redphone that linked the US and USSR State Leaders, the world countries were unified by their experirnce of world war and the conscience of a nuclear war dangers, as they were nuclear powers.
Today, leaders are more on diplomacy than in military, their Carreer are primarly those of lawyers, teachers, civil servants, entrepreneurs or libéral professions.
When they don’t allow theirselves to think their political decisions and judge their collective ambitions by the analysis of their consequences and dangers, then world only can fall in a Global Disorder.
04 : 00
The Disworlder era (the era of the world disorder), that occured from the War in Afghanistan and the first war in Iraq, to the War in Syria and the withdrawal of the US troops from Afghanistan could be over.
With the élection of Mr Joseph Robinette BIDEN, Jr as the Futur 46th President of the United States of America, the world direction is questioned.
Curiously, the difficulty transition between the current President of America, Mr Donald John Trump and his awaiting successor is representative of the hard transition from the DISWORLDER ERA to the NEW WORLDER ERA.
05 : 00
In the Disworlder era, which can be Labelled as the HOT WAR in the COLD WAR, all the participants know each other, but the main goal was to weakened ans anihilated the ennemy.
But diplomacy was extensively operative, as during the Cold war where monuments as KISSINGER or GROMYKO emerged.
The HOT WAR is the diplomacy of April Gaspie, Condoleeza Rice, Angela Merkel and Hillary Clinton, the diplomacy of Vadimir Putin, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Xi Jiping and Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
They have been stars than shone during the Hot War, in the US : George Bush Sr and mainly Jr, Saddam Hussein andMuhammar Gaddafi, all the four personnalities cited held a strong legacy from the Cold war to which they belongs (with the exception of George W. Bush), as the Hot War (or Disworlder era) is a brutal extension of the Cold War.
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Among the other stars that appears in the Hot War Era, there is politicians that has not been in affairs during the Cold War and put their policies in the deep steps of Cold War veterans : they are George Bush Jr, Tony Blair, Nicolas Sarkozy, Barack Obama.
We could almost included Putin exclusively among the post-Cold War world leaders, but Nothing would be more innacurrent as the current Russian President as been a KGB Officer during the Cold War, which means he is primarly a commander instead of a manager as the other world Leaders.
The millenial post-communist Russia enjoy a balance between the military command and the civil management, the example of this balance was the sharing of the Russian Federation executive powers between the former Director of KGB Vladimir Putin and the former Law professor, businessman and civil servant Dimitri Medvedev.
07 : 00
Nevertheless, as we know, Putin was in service in Dresde when the Berlin wall felt, and when Dresde Citizen decided to asszulted the KGB local Bureau as they previoulsy dis that sale Night to the city Stasi office, the Soviet Colonel understood, without any Order and communication from the KGB general staff in Moscow that that Night, the USSR was not efficient anymore.
Dramatically, the errors of COMMAND and the lack of Links between the top and the troops of the Soviet hierarchy, between Moscow and all the entities of the Soviet Union, caused Nothing less than the effective dislocation of the Soviet State.
The events described here hook place between the Berlin Wall fall (9th november, 1989) and the proclamation of the dissolution of the Soviet Union (26th december 1991).
08 : 00
Between the Berlin Wall fall and the proclamation of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq invaded Kuwait, in two days (2-4 august 1990).
The result of the invasion and annexation of Kuwait is the subsequent Gulf War (2 august 1990- 28 february 1991), which was a hell of a super Hot war, followed by a hottest conflict a decade later by the Iraq War (US-led invasion of Iraq which overthrew of Hussein government).
In two years (from 1989 winter to 1991 winter), the world maked its transition between the Cold War and the Hot War.
We precise that the Hot War era aka Disworlder era was planed to be quick.
Only a decisive rapid hot conflict could end a incertain long cold confrontation.
09 : 00
High ranked army officials, top diplomats, political leaders of this time and historians could argue that the Hot war was not long, only 2 years.
But we talk about the Hot war era (1990-2016/20) where a Disworlder (world scale disorder) ultimately lead to a hot-like conflict, in the style of the Gulf War, the Iraq War, the Libya War, the Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) War, or the Syria War.
The Hot War (1989-1991) opened the Hot War Era (1989-2016/17-20).
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The Conflict of the Hot War was the Gulf war, which centered on a Regional Power of the Middle East – Arab/Persian Gulf : Iraq, led by a powerful national(ist) leader : Saddam HUSSEIN.
Directly Invading Kuwait, Iraq triggered the reaction of the then US President, former Director of the CIA : George H.W Bush.
The doctrine of Bush Sr was those of the US Global Superpower fighting USSR hegemony and puting the national interests at the forefront of their diplomacy.
11 : 00
By beating Bush Sr son at the Republican Party primaries to the 2016 US Presidential Election, Jeb Bush, Donald Trump symbollicaly confirmed his « temper way » for the US foreign Policy, between the Cold relations and the heat of firearms.
Donald Trump temper way was a huge shift from the Hot war style of global gouvernance led by its predecessors.
Though, the world is not empty of Regional or Global powers that invade or annex foreign territories.
12 : 00
We saw territorial implementations outside the common rule of international law in Ukraine with the Dombass War and the annexation of Crimea, in Caucasus with the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict, or the agressive expansion of the terrorist states (sponsored by Dā’ish or al-Qā’ida).
In all these cases, while the Hot War doctrine disciples prefer to implement war policy towards Russia or the terrorist states, the President Trump choose the pacification by the warming of the relations with the centers of agressive expansion (Russia, Turkey/Azerbaidjan, Iraq and Levant).
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The strategy of Hot war doctrine disciples was to maximize their assaults on the Bashar al-Assad regime, then compared to Saddam Hussein without any invasion of foreign lands by Syria.
This developped the impunity of terrorists groups whose weapons are idelogical and geographic : the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) for example has been involved in the great game as a alternative to al-Assad regime.
The proof of this assesment is the end of the Gaddafi reign in Libya, which only failed to establish the reign of terrorist factions because of a local balance of military forces.
14 : 00
By refusing confrontation with Eurasian powers and Middle-East/Sahara terro-states, President Trump neither establish a cold or a hot war.
However, as implies by the politician, thinker and business tycoon GNADOU DANO ZADY (Founder, Chairman and Owner of HGOAH Group, the K1FO parent company) :
« The absence of war cannot be peace, much less the end of the cold war, which foreshadows other forms of invisible war. »
In this regard, the refuse of war (continuation) is not necessarly the establishment of peace.
15 : 00
Peace will be effective if their is not a will from powers to weaken or anihilitate each other (which is the goal of a hot war).
Peace will be secure if there is not a will from powers to destabilisate or isolate each other (which is the purpose of a cold war).
16 : 00
Let be honest; Saddam Hussein invasion of Kuwait was a silly disaster that permitted the isolation of Iraq during the Gulf War (Iraq then suffer cold war technics from its opponents).
Russia annexation of Crimea justified for some USA-NATO leaders the isolation of Putin administration, which then faced cold war animosity from diplomatic counterparts.
17 : 00
The War in Syria was as a repetition of the Hot War doctrine experimented in Iraq; Russia first responded by a temperation strategy, imposing a Cold war before adopting a symetric war system imposed by the situation.
Since, the Syria war has been a new Hot War, involving leaders who were temporal strangers for the military affairs of the Cold War and the First Hot War (Gulf War, 1990-1991), excepted the President of the Federation of Russia.
That is why we can say that Cold War is a preparation for a Hot War.
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The Cold War between USA and USSR never became a USSR VS USA Hot War because of the fear of each belligent states to be destroyed : It doesn’t mean Cold War era never create hot war conflicts, as in South-East Asia or Korea.
The War in Syria was a way to weaken and anihilate Syria, isolate and destabilisate Russia. Syria War is a hot war against Syria and a cold war against Russia.
With the Russian support of the Syrian Arab Republic, the isolation of Russia was acted for supporters-states of al-Assad departure.
In fact, Syria was Russia’s Kuwait, but Russia was not Iraq.
19 : 00
The Russian state that emerged from the Cold War-USSR was born in the fire of the Hot War in Middle-East.
Iraq is not Syria for sure. But as Russia became a global power, which implies cohabitation or confrontation with others powers, Russians didn’t forget the War in Afghanistan.
Your servant described the reasons and consequences of this war in the work TURK1FO : Théorie des A-Tribus.
For those who haven’t read the publication, we will resume one of its thesis, which demonstrates that USSR was a great empire that bordered Afghanistan; so the USA favoured conflicts in the zone to destabilisate and weaken USSR, may be in retaliation of the Soviet presence in Carribea and Latin America.
20 : 00
Could the War in Syria be an attempt to weaken and destabilisate one of its distant neighbors and closed allies, Russia ?
Could the Azerbaidjan/Turkey intervention in Nagorno-Karabagh be their Kuwait invasion ?
If this is the case, Turkey should have been near to be « saddamed » by foreign powers, in the sense of being implicated in an agression that will leads to a global retaliation.
21 : 00
A weakened or anihilated Turkey would have been a destabilisation of the Great Caucasus (Anatolia, Caucasus, Iran, Mesopotamia).
Indirectly, it would have destabilisated Russia, and isolated it from its own geosphere, if Armenia and Azerbaijan, two members of the Community of Independant States (Association of former Soviet Republics) were engaged in a War which included the Republic of Turkey, the crossroad between the European Union, Mesopotamia, Arabia, former Soviet world, Iran, and Mediteranea plus North Africa.
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What impeached Russia and Turkey to fall in the trap of a Hot War scheme is that now they are half-hearted, and temper the heat of the reason of force by the implacable coldness of the force of reason.
President Donald Trump tended towards this balance between peace and conflict by pushing peace instead of conflict.
Will the President Joe Biden rule this way ?
23 : 00
While Trump was agressive in the economic field with his perceived USA opponents (European Union and China), and peacemaker with the NATO perceived USA geostrategic ennemies (Russia and North Korea), Biden should be more geostrategically agressive with Russia and North Korea, and economic peacemaker with European Union and China.
When the powers retained their strikes at the most critical moments to protect not only global stability but theit own security, while national or transnational threats attacked the world, we now live under the balance between Cold and Hot War.
The World enter into the WARM WAR.
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This paper was written the 26th december 2020, at the 29th anniversary of the proclamation of the dissolution of the USSR.
In this day, we also learned that George Blake, British MI6 officer who defected UK and the West to help USSR, passed away, at the venerable age of 98.
While we condemn treason, we can respect his memory and dedicate this geostrategic article to his commitment during the World War, which were primarly motivated by the refuse of the reign of war and terror.
The War on Terror; no one in Washington, Moscow, London, Damascus, Paris, Abidjan, Bruxelles and Ankara could pretend it undesirable.
By the way, how, why and with who the war is lead, and against what and who, is more than fondamental.
It is the base of any Worlder.
But here the think, the order is based on the cohabitation of differents parts : these parts communicated together.
As the world powers refuse to exchange but prefers Great Game, the new worlder is now, ladies and gentlelen, a No-Worlder.
Without a Worlder in a worldwide system of people where human life should be respected and preserved everywhere, a Middleworlder as intermediate or distributive is essential for survival.
The only mean to establish a new worlder upon the disworlder is to push a framework that reunite the world together : That is unfortanetly the main purpose of the Covid pandemia, which in the same time create self-isolation and at distance communication.
Only communication, not for war and injustice but peace and respect can save the planet in a well-understood PEACE WORLDER.